Late yesterday, the hockey world was shocked when Nikita Kucherov requested a trade from the Tampa Bay Lightning. This wasn’t on anyone’s radar, as the perennial All Star and Art Ross candidate–in the final year of his $9.5 million per year contract–was expected to stick with Tampa as they go for at least one more Stanley Cup run. Tampa is still a true Cup contender, so while they deny they will trade him, there’s an opportunity for the Lightning to recoup some assets and extend their window. Can the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov be a match? Would it make sense for the Blueshirts, given where they are in their retool? As per usual, I have thoughts.
On the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov
1. The Rangers and Nikita Kucherov is a story of right player, wrong time. Unfortunately, the Rangers are not a Kucherov away from being true Stanley Cup contenders, especially without Igor Shesterkin for the year. Kucherov is still a bonafide star in this league, having eclipsed 110 points in each of his last four seasons. There is no doubt in anyone’s mind he’d immediately be the best player on the Rangers and give the top-six and top powerplay a huge boost.
There is no doubting Kucherov’s ability. The doubt is with the timing and whether the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov are a match right now.
2. There are three concerns with the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov: Contract, timing, and signability. Kucherov reportedly turned down $15 million a year–for an unknown number of years–from Tampa before this trade request came out. The Rangers have around $75.5 million committed to next season with 4 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 2 goalies signed. Even at a $113.5 million cap ceiling, that’s just $38 million remaining to fill out the roster. That includes re-signing Gabe Perreault, Will Cuylle, Tye Kartye, and Noah Laba. Adding Kucherov at $16 million (since he turned down $15 million) knocks that number down to $22 million, plus whatever salary the Rangers send back.
3. That’s the another issue with the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov. The Rangers would need to subtract from their NHL roster from their already thin depth. Braden Schneider doesn’t get this done. In fact, there’s a strong argument that Tampa wouldn’t even accept Schneider as their blue line is somewhat loaded. Tampa would be focused on recouping younger assets at forward to help replace the scoring vacated by Kucherov. If the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov did happen, it would cost the Rangers a lot more than fans may be willing to trade.
This trade-assuming an extension with the 33 year old is in place–starts with one of Alexis Lafreniere or Gabe Perreault, one of Cole Beaudoin or Liam Greentree, a 1st round pick, and more. That guts the Rangers for a guy who is already 33 and who is most likely only signing for 2-3 more years if he stays in the NHL. The Rangers and Nikita Kucherov would be more reminiscent of the 1997-2004 Rangers and not part of the current plan.
4. For the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov to work, the Rangers would need to have significantly more NHL depth to manage losing the package it would take to land him. They’d also need to be a 33 year old superstar away from a true Cup run. There are simply too many holes with the Rangers right now for this to make any sense. Right player, wrong time.
Now if Kucherov were 26 or 27 and able to re-sign for 7-8 years, we’d be having a different conversation.
On the new Rangers lines from yesterday
5. Moving on from the Rangers and Nikita Kucherov, head coach Mike Sullivan debuted a mild shakeup of the Rangers lines yesterday. Notably, Pavel Dorofeyev and Gabe Perreault flipped lines. Dorofeyev is with Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere. Perreault is with Noah Laba and Will Cuylle. JT Miller sticks with Tye Kartye and Oliver Bjorkstrand.
On paper, it’s not that big of a deal. Dorofeyev has been snakebitten and it makes sense to pair him with the Rangers best scorer (Lafreniere) and best center (Zibanejad). Miller and Kartye have been excellent together and Miller had lobbied to play with Kartye. That’s fine too. The issue is the lack of offense from Laba, who is excellent at every other aspect of the game, but he just simply doesn’t generate or drive offense.
6. There are two schools of thought: 1) This buries Perreault with an offensive vacuum that is Laba, and 2) Perreault is another play driver with Cuylle that can hopefully elevate Laba’s offensive game. The Rangers desperately need a young center that can score. Laba is talented, fast, and excellent defensively, but he hasn’t shown that ability to score and drive play. If he can defer the play driving to his wings and simply focus on getting to open ice in a position to shoot, then this might work.
The best case scenario is this balances the lineup and those of us who complained look silly. That would truly be great for the Rangers, as it helps them kick the “need another center” can down the road.
The worst case scenario is this doesn’t work and Perreault’s numbers tank. In theory that helps the Rangers get Perreault’s next contract down a bit. But it also means Laba is truly destined for a defensive shutdown 4C role.
Either way, the Rangers find out what they have in Laba. Perhaps that shifts their trade attention away from a 4C and more towards a 2C.
7. It does seem Kartye and Miller will be tied to the hip together. There’s a lot to process. If Miller stays as a center, they can be a nice shutdown duo. If not, that duo and Laba can create possibly one of the top shutdown lines in hockey. But it requires a change in role, which the Rangers can’t do just yet because their fourth line is in shambles.
Just food for thought.
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