Sportsbooks Track Quarterback Battles as NFL Camps Open

With the World Cup now over, Las Vegas sportsbooks are turning their attention to the National Football League (NFL) as training camps open this week.

Some teams begin with rookie arrivals and physicals tomorrow (July 20), with veterans starting to report for a handful of clubs on Wednesday (July 22). The exact reporting schedule varies by NFL team, but by the end of the week, all 32 clubs will be preparing for the 2026 season.
Sportsbooks Shift Toward NFL
This time of year, oddsmakers aren’t focused on glowing player reports or highlight-reel videos. They’re looking for information that genuinely changes a team’s outlook: Which players are taking first-team reps? Is a rookie practicing with the first team, especially with the quarterback, running back and tight end positions? Who’s receiving the bulk of the snaps at quarterback? 
A new coaching staff, like with the Vegas Raiders under Gary Kubiak, can change expectations. Is the defensive scheme changing? Will they rely more on the running game? 
Those are the developments that can influence futures odds, season win totals, even Week 1 betting lines.
Quarterback Battles Take Priority
Jamey Pileggi, Risk Manager at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, said they are paying particular attention to the quarterback battles.
One in particular is in Cleveland, with veteran Deshaun Watson returning from an Achilles injury and battling sophomore Shedeur Sanders for the Browns’ job. Both quarterbacks are working out with skill players this week. Competition between the two is wide open, with Sanders hyping his offseason improvements.
“Quarterback battles are the ones that really move game lines, futures markets above anything else,” said Pileggi. “The one that is most intriguing to me is in Minnesota with the Vikings. I value Kyler Murray as a significant upgrade to JJ McCarthy. 
Rookies Could Reshape Markets
According to Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, they’re tracking three critical quarterback battles this pre-season: Watson versus Sanders, Murray versus McCarthy, and Tua Tagovailoa versus Michael Penix in Atlanta with the Falcons.
“Though these competitions likely won’t shift futures odds unless the winners deliver truly dominant performances during their reps,” said Feazel. “Beyond those head-to-head battles, we are also closely monitoring rookies Fernando Mendoza [Raiders] and Carson Beck [Arizona Cardinals]. While neither is projected to start in Week 1, strong preseason performances could put current starters Kirk Cousins [Raiders] and Jacoby Brissett [Cardinals] on a very short leash.
“If these rookies force their way onto the field early, they could dramatically elevate the late-season ceiling for both franchises and heavily impact the Offensive Rookie of the Year market.”
Injury News Moves Quickly
Of course, oddsmakers are also laser-focused on injuries, as one significant injury can shift a Super Bowl price immediately.
“Injury news is what prompts us to move odds markets the fastest in training camp,” said Pileggi. “It’s immediate. Once a tweet goes out from a beat reporter that a high-profile QB might miss some regular-season time, we’ll start seeing bets against that team immediately if we don’t see it right away.”
Pileggi said bettors are “in love” with the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals right now.
“Rams are obviously very good, potentially adding Aaron Donald if he opts out of retirement, but they’re still in what I believe is the toughest division in the NFL,” he said. “We have them less than 5/1 at the moment to win the championship. Bettors seem to be forgetting the Seahawks and really riding that Super Bowl hangover narrative because there’s been very little interest in them.”
Bettors Back Rams, Bengals
A quick scan of the BetMGM lines bears that out. The Rams have gone from -285 to -500 (open to current) to make the NFL playoffs, the widest line movement, followed by the Baltimore Ravens (-350 to -375), Bengals (-130 to -175), Houston Texans (-140 to -170) and the Dallas Cowboys (+110 to +100).
The most bet teams to make the playoffs (tickets) are the Raiders (+550), New York Giants (+260) and the Chicago Bears (+100). On the money side, it’s the Detroit Lions (-220), New York Jets (+800) and the Raiders (+500). The most-bet team to miss the playoffs on the tickets side is the Lions (+180), and on the money side, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers (-220).
BetMGM Markets Show Movement
In BetMGM’s NFL season win totals market, the most popular Over bets by ticket count are the Giants (7.5), Raiders (5.5) and Denver Broncos (9.5). By money wagered, the Vikings (8.5), Broncos (9.5) and Lions (10.5) lead the way.
On the Under side, the most bet teams by ticket count are the Miami Dolphins (4.5), New England Patriots (9.5) and Green Bay Packers (9.5). By money wagered, bettors are backing the Cardinals (3.5), Dolphins (4.5) and Chicago Bears (9.5).
Feazel said at Caesars Sportsbook, a team where the market appears to be overreacting as the NFL heads into a new season is the Bears under quarterback Caleb Williams.
Bears Overvalued, Cowboys Overlooked
“While head coach Ben Johnson has clearly transformed the team’s culture, Williams still struggled at times with passing accuracy throughout the year,” he said. “However, the betting public loves his style and ‘Houdini-like’ plays, which fueled their playoff run last year.”
On the undervalued side, the Cowboys look like a prime target, he added.
“Dallas had a tremendous offseason, directly addressing their defensive woes from a year ago,” said Feazel. “With Brian Schottenheimer entering year two of his system, the Cowboys have the continuity and defensive upgrades necessary to compete for a division title in the NFC East.”