As a fan, one of the toughest challenges this offseason has been separating this objectively good Rangers offseason from the sense of fear and dread about Chris Drury and how he will manage to mess this up. I don’t trust Chris Drury. You don’t trust Chris Drury. In fact, most fans don’t trust Chris Drury. This isn’t dramatic, as Drury has done nothing to earn the trust of the fans after completely dismantling a team that made two Eastern Conference Finals appearances in three years. The team had flaws, but instead of addressing flaws, Drury blew the team up.
As Brandon alluded to yesterday, this fear is real and it drives why fans are so pessimistic. We don’t trust Chris Drury to do the right thing and stick to the plan if things go better than expected. A lingering question is how much Drury will sacrifice for a “Cup run” when the Rangers clearly are not true Cup contenders this year. Even if everything goes right, they just don’t have the offensive depth just yet.
The “perfect” season, where everything goes right, comes down to multiple things all happening this season:
- Perfect health, specifically Adam Fox and Igor Shesterin
- All young players–notably Gabe Perreault, Alexis Lafreniere, and Noah Laba–make notable improvements on offense
- Pavel Dorofeyev proves his worth in the form of a 40-50 goal season
- JT Miller rebounds completely to at least a point per game
- No self inflicted wounds with lineup decisions
- Possession/xG shares stay above 50% while the Rangers score over 280 goals on the season
There are certainly more things that need to happen, but these are the big ones at the top of the lineup that need to happen for the Rangers to be taken seriously. Albert Smits and Scott Morrow are wild cards. Ditto Liam Greentree. If that trio also forces their way into the conversation, then perhaps the Rangers are sitting pretty.
To make a gambling analogy, even if all 6 points have a realistic chance of happening, the odds that all 6 happen are slim. After all, this is why sports books love parlays so much. Even at an 80% chance of each individual thing happening, the possibility of all 6 happening are far below 80%. Running quick math in my head, that’s about a 25% chance of happening. And I’d argue that none of the above have an 80% chance of happening.
We don’t trust Chris Drury to do the right thing
This is why Ranger fans don’t trust Chris Drury. He finally took a big swing on young talent by sending two 1st round picks for 25 year old Pavel Dorofeyev, one of his first moves of this kind. He followed that up with a move that irked a few folks, sending another 1st round pick to Vancouver for 30 year old defenseman Marcus Pettersson. While the latter move can be defended, it’s also a move that is easy to criticize because it’s again sacrificing futures for a 30 year old player.
The plan was to get better this offseason, and that plan was executed pretty well. It’s an objective truth that the Rangers have a far better roster this year than last. But far better doesn’t guarantee the type of success the team is looking for. Even the best case scenario, where all 6 points above all hit, there are still questions about this team and whether they can beat the likes of Carolina, Tampa, or even Buffalo. At least this is a justifiable case to buy at the deadline.
But what happens if the Rangers sit 3-5 points out of a playoff spot, in a weak Metro Division, at the trade deadline? Will Drury sacrifice more futures for rentals? Or will he stay the course? Is Chris Drury’s job in jeopardy if the Rangers miss the playoffs? If so, that’s a dangerous situation. An executive fighting to hold his job at all costs will truly cost the Rangers multiple years of this retool/rebuild.
So much uncertainty
The Rangers are in a weird spot right now. Clearly improved but also clearly not good enough yet, the questions about their plan and goals for this season remain. We don’t trust Chris Drury to evaluate this season without a need to justify himself in this role and a need to justify sacrificing three 1st round picks in one offseason. In a vacuum all three picks can be explained away, but that vacuum doesn’t account for our inability to trust Chris Drury.
This lack of trust extends far beyond just the team standings. The Rangers as a whole haven’t been able to properly evaluate defensemen in quite some time, and Drury has continued this alarming trend. The good news is John Lilley has identified a slew of solid young blue liners that should hopefully buck this trend, but that doesn’t impact the NHL level where Drury and, to a lesser extent, Mike Sullivan will continue to make roster and lineup decisions.
Whether they’ve evolved their thinking will depend on one move: Braden Schneider. There will be a lot more trust in Drury and the Rangers organization if they are able to capitalize on Schneider’s high trade value despite poor performance on the ice. But the longer the Rangers hold onto him, the more fans’ inability to trust Chris Drury is justified.
Trust is a fickle being. Fans don’t trust Chris Drury because he hasn’t given anyone a reason to trust him. One good offseason doesn’t change that. Drury will need to earn trust before he’s given the benefit of the doubt.
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