When the Rangers traded Lias Andersson for a 2nd round pick that would become Will Cuylle, the immediate–and naturally pessimistic–reaction was the Rangers traded for what amounted to another Ryan Gropp. Gropp, along with Emerson Etem, were the “prizes” of the Carl Hagelin trade, and there was natural fear drafting Cuylle, who profiled similarly. But Cuylle is not the same, and signing Will Cuylle long term should now be a priority for the Rangers.
Cuylle has been everything the Rangers needed in the middle of their lineup. He drives possession with a three-zone, two-way style that combines skill and physicality with good reads and straight lines to the puck. The result is a breakout year for Cuylle, with 7 goals and 15 points in 18 games this season. Last night was the first time all season where he was on the ice for a 5v5 goal. He’s been that good.
Despite playing without Filip Chytil, easily the most skilled player on that line, Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko have not slowed down. Kakko took some shifts at center against Calgary, playing out of position, but it didn’t matter as Cuylle still netted the game tying goal.
Focusing on last night may be missing the forest for the trees, but it’s also been a theme with Cuylle this season. When the Rangers have a clunker, he’s one of the lone bright spots. It’s hard not to love his play style, and in the new NHL, signing Cuylle long term goes a long way to giving the Rangers a solid middle of the lineup that is difficult to play against.
Physicality certainly can play a role in being tough to play against, but it’s more about stifling the opposition, turning the play up the ice, and getting long, sustained offensive zone shifts. That’s the part of Cuylle’s game that can go unnoticed, especially as he puts up nearly a point per game. The scoring pace is likely to come down in the dog days of winter, but that doesn’t take away from the need to sign Cuylle long term.
Signing Cuylle long term may be tricky
There was a good question on this week’s Live From the Blue Seats, wondering whether a potential cap ceiling closer to $97 million impacts the Rangers plans. If those rumors are true, it presents the Rangers with a nice opportunity to lock up Cuylle and skip the bridge deal that has plagued this team’s cap situation for a decade now.
Normally we would leverage Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections, but the long term deals for Cuylle were in the $2.8 million to $3.2 million, and that’s just not realistic anymore given his offensive explosion. Instead, we need to find players with similar output, and while not a perfect comparison, Drake Batherson’s contract in Ottawa seems like a good start.
Batherson is a middle-six player for Ottawa who, in his first full season, put up a 17-17-34 line in 56 games. He played in 20 games in the first two seasons of his ELC, but didn’t stick with Ottawa until the final year of his ELC. Cuylle is a bit different, in that he made was a full time NHLer by his second year, and the output is a little different. But it’s close enough to make the comparison.
Batheron’s six year contract with a $4.975 million cap hit was roughly 6% of the salary cap ceiling when signed, and continues to be a tremendous bargain. Using $88 million as the cap ceiling for now, the same 6% is $5.28 million. I don’t think many would be upset if the Rangers sign Cuylle long term at $5.28 million. In fact, signing Cuylle long term to that cap hit is probably a coup for Chris Drury.
Roster impact of signing Cuylle long term
Signing Cuylle long term is not a perfect science, of course. The Rangers have $66.64 million committed to the roster next season. Assuming a $92 million cap ceiling–let’s be conservative–and the Rangers shed Jacob Trouba’s $8 million, that leaves roughly $34.35 million in cap space.
Igor Shesterkin will probably get $11.5 million. So that’s $22.85 million remaining.
Assuming Reilly Smith, Chad Ruhwedel, Jimmy Vesey and Ryan Lindgren walk, the Rangers will need to fill 2 forwards, 3 defensemen, and a backup goalie. The depth spots for Ruhwedel and Vesey are probably filled at $1 million. Ditto the backup goalie. It’s safe to allot $3 million to those spots, leaving $19.85 million. Smith probably gets replaced by an ELC, ditto Lindgren. That’s another $2 million, knocking this down to $17.85 million.
Before signing Cuylle long term, we should note the Rangers will need to re-sign K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones, Adam Edstrom, and Kaapo Kakko. Jones and Edstrom probably get close to $1.5 million each, again being a bit conservative with the cap, knocking the available space to $14.85 million for Miller, Kakko, and a potential Cuylle long term deal.
Using the estimated $5 million for Cuylle above, and using round numbers because it’s easier that way, the Rangers would have $9.85 million for Miller and Kakko. This is where things get difficult, as Miller has 2 years remaining before hitting unrestricted free agency, and Kakko just one year. These contracts will probably be more expensive than many are willing to admit.
We can use Evolving-Hockey’s projections for Miller as a baseline, at 5 years and $5.9 million. Kakko’s contract needs some more guess work, as EH’s estimate is likely very under given the start to Kakko’s season. Still, using these numbers, that leaves $4 million for Kakko. Doable for sure, but it doesn’t give the Rangers much wiggle room.
Signing Cuylle long term is certainly doable, but it will be close. They will have some cap pain for the 2025-2026 season, but it gets easier once Artemi Panarin’s contract comes off the books. One year of cap pain in exchange for locking up Cuylle long term is certainly worth the gamble.
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