Hardcore NBA fans are typically starved for any information related to the league after the draft and the free agency period ends early in July. That’s especially true as it relates to LeBron James.
On Tuesday (July 21), the Miami Heat posted a link on the team’s YouTube channel to a scheduled live stream entitled “LeBron James Introductory Press Conference”, followed by the date July 27.
Erroneous Report
The post was deleted later on Tuesday (July 21). A team spokesperson told ESPN the Heat’s social media department was preparing for the possibility of James’ signing and made the post by mistake.
But what was the impact on NBA sports betting lines, especially when it involved James, even if it was based on an erroneous report?
James is an unrestricted free agent, and even at 42, entering his 24th season, carries a combination of influence, stature and star power that few pro athletes possess.
Rumor Moves Betting Markets
He’s been weighing his options about which team he will sign with next. The Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, and the Heat are all teams that James is rumored to be considering, according to ESPN NBA insiders. The Golden State Warriors are believed to be in the mix too.
When that erroneous Heat link went live, DraftKings dropped their odds from -120 to -200 on the Heat signing him. That’s followed by the Cavaliers at +225, Warriors at +450 and the 76ers at +700. Long-shot teams at DraftKings include the Minnesota Timberwolves (+4000), Washington Wizards (+5000), and San Antonio Spurs (+10000).
Managing Insider Information
Overall, the James’ “Next Team” market is not widely available across regulated sportsbooks. Prediction market Polymarket currently lists the Miami Heat as the frontrunner to land James, assigning the team a 48% implied probability of signing the four-time NBA champion.
The Cleveland Cavaliers rank second at 27%, followed by the Golden State Warriors at 12% and the Philadelphia 76ers at 9%.
James’ longtime friend and agent, Rich Paul, told the Game Over podcast Monday (July 20) that he wasn’t sure when his client would decide what team he’ll play for next season.
Low Limits Reduce Risk
In an age of rumors and social media scuttlebutt, it makes it challenging to manage those kinds of markets, said Phill Gray, the former head of sports betting operations at Sports Interaction, and a sports betting industry consultant. If they are not careful, a sportsbook gets caught “hanging a bad price”.
“It always was, and it’s even more so now given the amount of insider information prevailing, as we’ve seen with the prediction markets,” he said. “As a bookmaker, these kinds of markets are more of a problem than they are worth. Stop offering them when the scuttlebutt emerges. As a practice, I always kept bet limits extremely low as a protection against these kinds of things.
“If books have large limits, you leave yourself liable to a hit. And with prudent bookmaking, I’d have it OTB [off the board] now. The only bettors going after it are ones looking for advantage lines. If they’re allowing large bets certainly action would have moved it, but again at this point I’d remove it from offering.”
Heat Futures Unchanged
The Miami Heat already made a big offseason move, acquiring superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (along with Bobby Portis) from the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round draft picks, a draft pick swap in 2030 and a second-round pick in 2033. Heat conference and championship haven’t moved at Circa Las Vegas Sportsbook, with the James talk. The Heat are currently +2200 to win the title and +750 to win the conference.
“Earlier in the summer, we saw a short video of [Warriors coach] Steve Kerr talking to a fan while driving. Kerr mentioned ‘we got him’ when LeBron was brought up. When that happened, we dropped the odds on the Warriors,” said Glenn Herzon, senior risk manager at Circa Las Vegas Sportsbook.
“For us, protecting the teams with longer odds that could get him was the priority. Since the Heat, 76ers and Cavaliers were already fairly low in terms of odds, we didn’t feel the need to be proactive off of rumours. When he officially makes his announcement, or if we start taking significant bets on a specific team, we will move the lines accordingly.”
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