Sports

Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction & betting tips


Match Details

Fixture: (8) Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov

Date: September 4, 2026

Tournament: US Open Tennis Championships

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Category: Grand Slam

Surface: Outdoor hard

Venue: USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Queens, New York City

Prize Money: $108,000,000

Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN


Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov preview

Eighth seed Ben Shelton will face off against unseeded Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the 2026 US Open on Friday.

Shelton reached the third round with a 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(3), 7-5 win over Hubert Hurkacz, delivering 44 winners in a four-set battle that included a tense third-set tiebreak. He’s the No. 8 seed and a 2023 semifinalist at this event, and he’s continued to thrive under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Meanwhile, Shapovalov reached the third round with a 6-0, 6-4, 7-6(7) win over Luca Van Assche, needing 2 hours and 25 minutes and converting all three break points he earned in a lopsided opening set. It’s a solid follow-up to a runner-up finish in Los Cabos last month, and he’s now aiming to reach the fourth round here for the first time in six years, when he made a run all the way to the quarterfinals.


Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov head-to-head

Shelton leads their head-to-head 4-0, most recently winning in three sets in the Dallas semifinal this February. They’re 3-0 on hard courts specifically.


Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov odds

Player Moneyline Handicap Bets Total Games
Ben Shelton -375 -5.5 (-102) Over 37.5 (-135)
Denis Shapovalov +280 +5.5 (-145) Under 37.5 (-110)

(Odds via BetMGM)


Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov prediction

Shelton’s serve numbers this year are genuinely dominant: 9.53 aces per match with a 53.5% break-point conversion rate, and his 4-0 head-to-head edge, including 3-0 on hard courts, suggests his game has a real answer for what Shapovalov brings. Their Dallas semifinal earlier this year showed just how tight these matches can get, though, a deciding tiebreak that came down to Shelton saving 10 of 11 break points under real pressure.

Shapovalov, for his part, has been in strong recent form of his own, a runner-up finish in Los Cabos and a clean two-round run here that’s included 78% break-point conversion. His flat, aggressive shot-making off both wings can trouble anyone when it’s landing, and left-on-left matchups tend to produce unpredictable, high-error affairs regardless of ranking gaps.

Given Shelton’s superior serve numbers and his unblemished record in this exact matchup, even accounting for how competitive their previous meetings have been, he looks like the favorite here, especially with the added benefit of a home crowd behind him in New York.

Pick: Shelton to win in four sets.


Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov betting tips

Tip 1: The match will have at least 35 games.

Tip 2: Shapovalov to win a set with a score of 7-5 or better.