Are the Rangers a playoff team? Or are they more of the same?

As the offseason conversation shifts to which teams are playoff contenders, the jury is out on the New York Rangers. Are the Rangers a playoff team? Did they make enough improvements on offense–the biggest issue last year–to finally support Igor Shesterkin and their improved defensive play? Were the changes on the blue line enough to help transition to offense without losing those improvements in their own end? Or is this more of the same, with Chris Drury sacrificing three first round picks to not see any significant improvements?

Drury was the most active General Manager this offseason, with deals bringing in Pavel Dorofeyev for 2026 and 2028 1st round picks, Marcus Pettersson for a 2030 1st round pick, and Sean Durzi and prospect Cole Beaudoin for Vincent Trocheck. Drafting Alberts Smits 5th overall, with the expectation he will join the team at some point this season, cemented a shift in the Rangers path from grit focused to skill focused. Both Durzi and Pettersson fill specific needs on the blue line, while Dorofeyev hopefully replaces the goal scoring hole left by Chris Kreider.

So are the Rangers a playoff team?

The big question is are the Rangers a playoff team. It’s tough to say right now, but there are three things going their way:

1. The Rangers added puck movers and mobility to the blue line, two significant needs. Durzi and Pettersson instantly give the Rangers a legitimate second pair on defense.
2. Dorofeyev gets most of his xG from the front of the net. He has a wicked shot and can score from anywhere, but his bread and butter is in front of the net.
3. Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin are healthy (hopefully).

The third bullet alone likely adds at least 10 points in the standings for the Blueshirts. While both missed “only” 15+ games or so, it was they both missed these games at the same time. This is a bit of a grey area, as NHL Injury Viz doesn’t explicitly call out the compounding impact of the Rangers missing both of their star players at the same time, and if I’m reading it right it only accounts for salary. Logically speaking, missing both at the same time would have a significantly larger impact than missing one at a time.

Remember, the Rangers went 3-15 when missing both Fox and Shesterkin last seaso.

But a healthy Fox and Shesterkin doesn’t make the Rangers a playoff team. Durzi and Pettersson over Will Borgen and Carson Soucy (or Matthew Robertson) on the second pair is a significant needle mover. Dorofeyev over a rotation of Conor Sheary, Taylor Raddysh, and others in the top six is also a significant needle mover. Dorofeyev on PP1 at the net mouth is also a big need, hopefully shifting JT Miller to PP2 with Durzi, giving the Rangers more balance.

But to answer whether the Rangers are a playoff team, we need to see how they can make up about 22 points in the standings in one shot. If we assume 10 points are from a healthy Fox/Shesterkin duo, then it’s whether Durzi, Pettersson, and Dorofeyev are worth the other 12 points. If not, then can the improving Gabe Perreault and Alexis Lafreniere bridge the gap? What about having a legitimate third line that can also chip in offensively? How much value does Oliver Bjorkstrand have in this lineup?

The Rangers aren’t a perfect team either, as they certainly need another top six body, preferably at center. They also still have a net-negative in Braden Schneider, though those two problems are somewhat related. I believe the Rangers are a playoff team, though I may be one of the few that shares this optimism.

The case against

The additions are nice, but we aren’t accounting for three major factors in the Rangers making the playoffs:

1. Other teams in the Metro made improvements too, so can the Rangers jump from last in the division to third or fourth?
2. We are banking on the Lafreniere-Zibanejad-Perreault line continuing their pace to close out last season.
3. We are banking on kids like Adam Sykora, Jaro Chmelar, and Noah Laba taking significant next steps in their roles.

The Rangers can’t control how other teams in their division perform. As we saw with the Florida Panthers, injuries can turn a season in an instant, so this isn’t something to worry about. If points 2 and 3 hit, then the Rangers make significant strides. If not, then we are right back where we started.

Perhaps without Artemi Panarin in the mix, Lafreniere can build off that confidence and point per game pace to close out the season. If he’s the play driver on that line with Zibanejad and Perreault, then the Rangers have themselves a real scoring line. If not, then this line quickly gets overwhelmed by better teams and more difficult defense matchups.

The kids are a wild card, though this may be mitigated by their roles. All three of Sykora, Chmelar, and Laba are bottom six players, so they can be sheltered–Sykora and Laba–and minutes limited–Chmelar–if things go wrong. We want to see growth so the bottom six can be a strength, but we won’t know how this plays out until puck drop. Tanner Glass can silence a lot of doubters if this trio continues to develop.

One point to consider: Miller and Zibanejad continue to get older. Zibanejad may have found life as a pure shooter with two young wingers who have star potential. Miller, though, is coming off a horrendous season where he under performed, played injured, had his leadership questioned, and was rumored to have threatened the organization if he wasn’t on the Olympic team. That rumor has no confirmation, but it’s made the rounds.

Miller is the bigger need for the Rangers. They invested a lot and whether you like him as captain or not, the Rangers need him to get back to what he was when they acquired him. At the very least, he needs to be a capable 2C with 70+ points while driving PP2. If he’s on PP1, then he needs to be a driving force in the lineup and back to that 90-100 point pace. Miller’s aging curve, and to a lesser extent Zibanejad’s aging curve, will dictate how this season goes.

Are the Rangers a playoff team? I believe so. But as they say, that’s why the games are played.