Very quietly, the New York Rangers may be facing a decision to make about one of their best players. When Adam Fox signed a long-term extension in 2021, it felt like he would be a Ranger forever. However, Fox’s deal will expire at the end of the 2028-2029 season, meaning he’s only under contract with the Rangers for three more seasons. The Adam Fox decision may seem far away, after all it’s three full seasons, but it will come quicker than expected. Plus if there is any indication of him not-resigning, then trading him before his contract is up is critical.
At the expiration of his contract Fox will be a 31 year old free agent, and barring a complete drop off in his play, he will be likely be the best player available. Most franchises like to ensure their players don’t reach free agency, so there’s a good chance the Adam Fox decision becomes a major talking point, perhaps as soon as next offseason.
Fox is an elite defenseman with huge offensive flair and a very underrated and underappreciated defensive game. While he was left off the USA Olympic roster, a decision which made no sense, he should be considered a top five defenseman in the sport, likely higher. The Adam Fox decision isn’t an easy one, especially since three members of the Rangers organization–Chris Drury, Mike Sullivan, David Quinn–were all part of that Olympic snub.
Fox’s $9.5 million cap hit has been a steal. It’s possible Fox takes the “I just want to help the team win” approach on his next contract, but it should also be his last “time to get paid” contract in the NHL. The Adam Fox decision is clouded by all the Olympics drama, plus his desire to “see how things played out” this past offseason. That likely stretches to the coming season, to see if he truly trusts Drury to make the Rangers into a Cup contender.
Odds are those concerns won’t prevent Fox from re-signing, but there’s a real chance it impacts his willingness to take a hometown discount. By the point Fox’s contract is expiring, New York is hoping Alberts Smits will be ready to be a top-pair defenseman. While some may argue Fox would be better off as trade bait, there’s no such thing as too many top defenseman on the roster. It’s not like new guys Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi are getting younger and/or better.
The Adam Fox decision shouldn’t wait
All of this is to say the Rangers should get started on the Adam Fox decision and trying to find common ground on a new contract for Fox as soon as next offseason. If there are inklings of him wanting to go or pricing himself out of New York, they should consider cutting ties. There’s no value in waiting on the Adam Fox decision unless he gives an indication he wants to wait one more offseason than sign because of the rising cap. Locking Fox in sooner than later means a lower cap hit, while trading Fox next offseason means a drastically better package than waiting.
To be clear, I don’t see a universe in which trading Fox is more valuable than re-signing him. However, the key is to not let this drag out. Next offseason should be decision time. There’s little value in holding onto him if he’s not going to stick around beyond his contract, especially when it looks like he can get a Quinn Hughes type of trade package–three legitimate NHL assets plus a 1st round pick–in return. This is another decision Chris Drury cannot afford to get wrong.
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