Reilly Smith was the “prize” of the offseason for Chris Drury and the Rangers, choosing to trade for the winger instead of making a big splash in the offseason. On paper, Smith fit the bill that the Rangers needed as a play driving, pass first winger. Still, “Reilly Smith 2RW” was a sentence that didn’t sit well with many. It’s early, and the results have been a mixed bag so far.
Heading into the season, we had a feeling that the second line’s role would be shifted a bit. One of the big changes under Peter Laviolette is using Mika Zibanejad in a hybrid shutdown role, matching him up against top competition. With this changed role comes changed expectations, even if the majority of the fan base doesn’t see it that way. Roles change, and as long as the Rangers have a viable third line that can score and dominate play, the pressure on the Zibanejad line to score at 5v5 eases a bit.
Only a bit, though.
Through 4 games, this trio has regularly seen top competition, getting the Sidney Crosby, Clayton Keller, and Dylan Larkin (twice) lines in their four games. The results, again, have been a mixed bag.
- CF/60: 59.92
- CA/60: 70.96
- CF%: 45.78%
- xGF/60: 2.90
- xGA/60: 3.59
- xGF%: 44.71%
- HDCF/60: 17.35
- HDCA/60: 11.04
- HDCF%: 61.11%
The positive here is the trio is very good at limiting high danger chances against while driving their own high danger chances. The bad news is they are regularly getting caved at 5v5, spending most of their time in the defensive zone and getting shelled.
One caveat to point out is, while they are getting caved, it’s mostly with medium danger chances. So they are protecting the home plate area, but they aren’t able to recover the puck and push the play up the ice. Making matters worse is they aren’t getting overloaded with defensive zone starts, and it’s about a 50/50 split with their offensive zone starts.
For those looking for a quick summary, the trio is getting top competition, an even split in zone starts, surrendering massive quantity against, mostly at medium danger, but also limiting high danger chances against and making the most of their offensive zone time.
It’s way too early to see if Smith is having a positive impact, as Kreider and Zibanejad have just 2:02 TOI without Smith at 5v5. The results are hilarious though, to the tune of a whopping 117.07 CA/60 in those 2 minutes. That’s not worth taking any value, it’s just funny and I’ve never seen a CA/60 that high, yet in those 2 minutes they have a 63% xG share and a 100% HDCF share.
Again, these two minute stats are just anecdotal. It’s funny to look at, but has no actual value. There’s some value in the full trio’s numbers above, but it’s still early. Grain of salt required.
I do think it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees. We want improvement in overall possession from this line, but I do consider it a win when they are still wining the HD chance share. Limiting the opposition to mostly medium danger chances is a big win, and essentially neuters the opposition’s top lines on a nightly basis. They won’t be perfect, but there is value here.
Ideally, they are able to push play up the ice. This may change when Ryan Lindgren returns, as this trio has seen about 17:40 of their 38:03 TOI with the Jacob Trouba-Braden Schneider pairing. The pairing itself has actually been strong, and takes a pretty big hit when on the ice with the trio, but we simply don’t have enough information to know if it’s the defense pair, the trio, Smith himself, or just the matchup and situation they find themselves in.
But to bring this back to the point, Reilly Smith hasn’t been a net negative to Zibanejad and Kreider. He has two points in four games, which is fine. This line is going to get all the criticism all season, so it’s to be expected. Let’s see how they look around Thanksgiving, to get a true idea if Smith is a positive or a negative to that duo in their current role.
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