Mamdani’s Influence Tested in New York Primaries

This story gives you a peek at the content coming to our new platform, TRD Policy Pro. Sign up to get early access here.

Hey there, let’s get into today’s news at the intersection of policy and real estate:

• The outcome of today’s Democratic primaries could carry major implications for the real estate industry in the years ahead, depending on how far left voters push the party.
• One Lower Manhattan Assembly race could signal a shift — or a reaffirmation — in the district’s housing politics.
• State Sen. Jessica Ramos is targeting a political rival with a new ethics bill following the approval of Steve Cohen’s Metropolitan Park casino. 

In this edition we mention: Assembly member Claire Valdez, activist Darializa Avila Chevalier, former city Comptroller Brad Lander, veteran political consultant Hank Sheinkopf, Assembly member Deborah Glick, Manhattan Community Board 2 member Jeannine Kiely, Abundance New York co-founder Ryder Kessler, State Sen. Jessica Ramos, billionaire Steve Cohen and others.

We Heard

• Election day: Today’s primaries feature an unusually competitive slate of races, from open state legislative seats vacated by longtime incumbents to congressional contests where sitting lawmakers are fending off serious challenges from the left. While most candidates share broadly progressive agendas the elections are emerging as a test of just how far left New York Democrats are willing to go; the answer could come with significant consequences for the real estate industry in the years ahead. The races also mark the first major test of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s political influence since taking office. Mamdani has endorsed candidates in three high-stakes Democratic congressional races: Assembly member Claire Valdez and activist Darializa Avila Chevalier (both Democratic Socialists of America members), and former city Comptroller Brad Lander. If his picks prevail, it would bolster the case that Mamdani’s Democratic Socialist movement has expanded beyond City Hall and reshaped power dynamics within the state Democratic Party. It would also signal that the coalition that fueled his rise remains engaged and willing to turn out for his allies. The results could carry implications well beyond this election cycle, potentially strengthening Mamdani’s hand as he seeks to advance his agenda and influence future local races. “The mayor has set himself up as trying to be the political boss of New York City,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran political consultant. “If he does as well as he thinks he’s going to do in congressional races, it sends the message that he can do the same thing in legislative races.” A poor showing, however, could produce the opposite effect, raising questions about the durability of Mamdani’s political coalition and giving ammunition to mainstream Democrats who have sought to contain the party’s left flank.
• Density divide: One primary that’s perhaps more of a housing policy referendum is the race to replace Assembly member Deborah Glick, who is not seeking another term after representing Lower Manhattan for 35 years. Glick was a frequent antagonist of the real estate industry, leading the push for a pied-à-terre tax, criticizing luxury-driven development and fighting efforts to lift the city’s residential density cap before Albany approved the change in 2024. Six candidates are on the ticket but Glick’s preferred pick to succeed her is Jeannine Kiely, who serves on Manhattan’s Community Board 2.  Kiely founded Friends of Elizabeth Street Garden, the group that, alongside Glick and other opponents, sued the city to block plans for 123 units of senior housing on the Noho site. Former Mayor Eric Adams administration ultimately shelved the project, but not before it became one of the city’s most high-profile battlegrounds in the fight between NIMBY preservationists and pro-housing YIMBY advocates. On the opposite end of the candidate spectrum from Kiely is Ryder Kessler, who co-founded the pro-growth group Abundance New York that supported housing on the garden site. Voters weigh candidates on more than housing policy, of course, but the outcome could signal whether the district remains wary of development or is ready to back a candidate who favors building housing across income levels.
  
• Ethics fight: State Sen. Jessica Ramos introduced a bill Monday that would have blocked a donation last year from billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen to the husband of one of Ramos’ political opponents ahead of a vote on Cohen’s proposal to bring a casino to Citi Field’s parking lot. Ramos was a staunch opponent of the Metropolitan Park casino proposal — though Cohen still managed to win state support and a license for it — and has continued to beat that drum on the campaign trail to keep her Queens Senate seat. The bill essentially seeks to prohibit immediate family members, romantic partners and anyone living in the same household as a member of the state Legislature from getting paid by an entity with business before the state or a local government within that member’s district. Ramos rolled out the bill as she looks to draw attention to a 2025 donation from the Steven & Alexandra Cohen Foundation to All Star Code, a tech education nonprofit that received support from the foundation during Black History Month. The group’s executive director, Danny Rojas, is married to Assembly member Jessica González-Rojas — Ramos’ leading primary opponent. “The Assemblywoman’s husband has a not-for-profit that received money,” Ramos said at a June 11 candidate forum in a video circulating on social media. “We want to know how much did All Star Code take?” Cohen has denied that the donation had anything to do with the casino proposal. It’s unclear if the two-page bill is merely political posturing from Ramos or if it’s actually a measure she’d fight to advance if she stays in office.

Have a tip or feedback? Reach me at caroline.spivack@therealdeal.com. 

Bill Tracker

The Catch-Up

The Real Estate Board of New York has selected Jonathan Mechanic, chairman of Fried Frank’s real estate department, to serve as the next chair of REBNY, reports The Real Deal’s Ben Miller.

Legal advocacy groups say supportive housing providers in New York City have continued pursuing eviction cases against formerly homeless New Yorkers, even after the Mamdani administration told them to stop, reports Gothamist.

Mayor Mamdani still owns land in Uganda. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams owned cryptocurrency. City Council Speaker Julie Menin is still rich. And other takeaways from new financial disclosures from the City’s Conflicts of Interest Board, reports City & State.

Federal housing officials are rolling out 14 changes to the Federal Housing Administration’s single-family mortgage insurance program, including less stringent appraisal rules, added flexibility for the 203(k) rehab loan program and simplified closing forms, reports HousingWire.

The Kicker

“It may be that folks won’t be mad at him, they may actually be a lot more fearful of his power,” said Basil Smikle, a former head of the New York State Democratic Party, on if Mamdani-backed Congressional candidates win.

Read more

NY Dirt: Real estate gives big in key Albany legislative races

Mamdani reveals his “bad landlord” playbook

The Daily Dirt: Mamdani’s YIMBY Socialism