Throughout their storybook season, the Mets have displayed plenty of resiliency, and they will now need to dig deep once again in the NLCS, where they are down two games to one to the Dodgers.
It’s familiar territory for the Mets, who followed their three losses of the postseason with victories, including a 7-3 decision after being shut out 9-0 in Game 1 of this series.
Carlos Mendoza will send left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound for Thursday’s critical Game 4 (8:08 p.m., FS1). Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts will counter with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Here’s a preview of the matchup at Citi Field with a prediction and pick.
NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -142 | -1.5 (+130) | o7 (-118) |
| Mets | +120 | +1.5 (-155) | u7 (-102) |
NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 prediction
Yamamoto bounced back with a great showing in Game 5 versus San Diego, after a horrid playoff debut in Game 1 of the NLDS.
His underlying results from those two games were fairly ugly, as he allowed a .278 xBA and xFIP of 5.43. He held a K-BB% of 0.0.
Even in Yamamoto’s sharp Game 5 outing, he was walking a close line between dominant and lucky, and on another night, he might have allowed two homers to Manny Machado. He was hard-hit 43% of the time in that matchup and struck out just two batters.
Yamamoto’s velocity was up to 96.7, and he pitched quite well, but I’m not sure that performance means he deserves to be viewed as an ace again. He’s still only a month removed from being taken off the IL with a rotary cuff strain.
Oddsmakers aren’t counting on a deep start from Yamamoto on Thursday, as his betting total for outs is 13.5 (over +105, bet365). The Dodgers bullpen is pretty taxed after throwing a bullpen game in Game 2 and getting just 12 outs from ace Walker Buehler on Wednesday.
If Yamamoto can’t manage a deep start, it could leave Roberts with some tough middle-relief choices before bringing in his high-leverage arms.
The Mets have gotten to some elite pitchers in big moments in this postseason. They hold a wRC+ of 100, and an OPS of .698 during their magical playoff run.
Quintana has been brilliant in his two postseason starts. Against the Brewers and Phillies, he allowed zero earned runs across 12 innings of work. He held an xFIP of 3.49 in those matchups with a K-BB% of 18.2.
Quintana will look to generate soft contact by working the edges of the zone, trying to force batters to chase outside of it. The Dodgers have been far less effective versus lefties but also have chased at the third-lowest rate this season.
NLCS: Dodgers vs. Mets Game 4 pick
Thursday’s conditions at Citi Field should help both starters but could potentially aid a contact pitcher like Quintana more as first pitch calls for 52-degree temperatures with the wind blowing in from left centerfield.
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Quintana has been highly effective this postseason, and the Mets have proven to have a feel for this kind of spot.
At +110 or better, I see value in backing the Mets to steal a win and even the series at home.
Pick: Mets (+120, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
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