Perhaps a bit under the radar with the Rangers going 7-3-1 to start the year with some pretty big offensive explosions, Pavel Dorofeyev is off to a bit of a slow start. At least statistically. Dorofeyev, coming off a 37 goal, 64 point season in Vegas, was Chris Drury’s big acquisition this offseason. Sending two first round picks to the Golden Knights and promptly signing him to a massive 7 year, $11 million contract, the pressure on Pavel Dorofeyev was clear from the start. He needs to be more than just a goal scorer, but he also needs to score goals.
Through 11 games, Pavel Dorofeyev has just 2 goals and 3 assists on the season, and just 1 goal and 1 assist at 5v5. For comparison’s sake, once Oliver Bjorkstrand flipped with Tye Kartye, the latter has put up 2 goals and 5 assists without any powerplay time. That’s in line with his numbers from last season when he was primarily with JT Miller. Miller has been a far cry from the point per game player the Rangers thought they were getting, carrying the same 2-5-7 line as Kartye, but with a goal and an assist on the powerplay.
Of course, context matters when talking stats. The trio of Kartye, Miller, and Pavel Dorofeyev has dominating possession numbers, with a 60% or higher shot attempt share, expected goals share, and high danger chance share. They are going out there with roughly 46% offensive zone starts against top competition and absolutely wrecking them. Last night the trio was mostly matched against the Leo Carlsson line, and they wound up with an 80% xG share. That’s absurd.
Pavel Dorofeyev is doing everything else right
A popular concern when the Rangers traded for and extended Pavel Dorofeyev was whether he’d be an empty calorie goal scorer. The Rangers didn’t need a guy who would coast and contribute very little in the neutral or defensive zones. They didn’t need another Artemi Panarin. They needed a guy who can dominate, back check, and be tough to play against. Dorofeyev has been as advertised in that regard.
The Rangers haven’t played enough games for Dorofeyev’s stats to be considered gospel, but we have seen enough to know he’s not coasting. He is routinely back on the back check, disrupting passing lanes and covering his man. He’s in on the forecheck and he gets to dirty areas for deflections. He’s also finding open ice for his own chances, averaging 2 shots per 60 more than he did last year. What’s changed this year is the Rangers’ shooting percentage when he’s on the ice, which is under 7% to start the season. He should be around 9%-10%.
His on-ice shot percentage is inclusive of the team while he’s on the ice, and that’s a part of the story. The bigger part is his individual shooting percentage (5.7%), which is almost 10 points below is career average (14.3%). His two goals have come on 35 shots on goal. If he were to be around his career average, we’d be looking at 5 goals and–when you factor in the team’s on-ice shooting percentage–at least 2 assists.
The answer is pretty clear: Pavel Dorofeyev is simply snake bitten right now. It happens. It’s nothing to be concerned about, at least not yet. Stints like this will always catch eyes when it’s someone like Dorofeyev, especially in his current situation and the hooplah that came with his acquisition. Given how bad PP1 has looked, this will eventually course correct when that unit gets going.
Should some changes be made?
The Rangers do need to get Pavel Dorofeyev going. It hasn’t mattered where he’s played at 5v5, he’s been mostly dominant and that scoring drought will end sooner rather than later. The powerplay is the bigger concern, as the Rangers are 16th with the man advantage with a 20.6% conversion rate. PP1 (Dorofeyev, Miller, Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere) has accounted for five of the seven goals with the man advantage, which is fine on paper but there needs to be improvement. They too have been inconsistent.
Perhaps some more balance to the units is in order. PP1 is stacked but not getting the job done as frequently as they should. PP2 has just two goals but is also not getting the same ice time split. If the goal is to get a more balanced ice time split, then the units need to be more balanced as well. If not splitting the units, then getting Dorofeyev to the net mouth with Miller moving back to bumper is probably the move I’d make.
Pavel Dorofeyev is going to start getting more eyes on his goal scoring struggles to start the season. But those goals will come. He’s doing everything else right, he’s just been exceedingly unlucky so far. Once one goes in, the floodgates will open.
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