Posted on: February 24, 2026, 04:33h.
Last updated on: February 24, 2026, 04:54h.
- Prediction market traders are buying and selling shares of what Trump might say tonight
- The State of the Union has resulted in more than $10 million in trading volume on Polymarket and Predict
- Trump, as most presidents do, is expected to promote his self-perceived accomplishments
President Donald Trump invited network news anchors to The White House this afternoon for a lunch where he previewed tonight’s State of the Union address.
Prediction markets, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, continue to face opposition from the legal gaming industry, state lawmakers, and attorneys general. But the Trump administration and the president’s hand-picked CFTC chair, Michael Selig, are seemingly intent on solidifying prediction markets’ rights to offer trading contracts on everything from the outcome of sports to what the president might or might not say during tonight’s annual address to the joint session of Congress.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have facilitated more than $10 million in trading volume in the lead-up to the SOTU.
Trump is expected to highlight his first year back in office, including mass deportations, deregulation, and his “law and order” agenda. The odds are good that the president will additionally focus on the economy, looming tensions with Iran, the partial government shutdown, and the polarized political climate.
What Will Trump Say?
While Americans will tune in tonight at 9 pm EST to watch the president address the nation, many prediction market bettors, ahem, traders, will anxiously await to see if the outcomes of their trades prove fruitful.
Jonathan Karl, ABC News’ chief White House correspondent, attended the White House luncheon. Karl revealed that Trump plans to talk “a lot” about the economy and call for new tax cuts. Trump detailed that he plans to lay out his vision to make the “next three years” the best economic years in US history.
That fares well for economic-related prediction market. Kalshi traders have shares of Trump saying “stock market” priced at 88 cents. On Polymarket, shares of the president saying “oil” or “gas” at least three times are at 92 cents. Winning shares are redeemed at $1.
Kalshi traders think there’s a good chance the president will mention his prescription service, TrumpRX, with those shares trading at 86 cents. The president is expected to mention “nuclear” (85 cents), the adjective “hottest” (84 cents), and “rare Earth minerals” (74 cents).
Less likely mentions include the president referencing his White House Ballroom (53 cents), his former presidential challenger Kamala Harris (40 cents), and Trump’s upcoming UFC fight on the White House Lawn (35 cents).
Polymarket traders say there’s a 96% chance Trump will say America or American at least 25 times. The implied odds drop to only 85% for the president referencing the country 50 times or more.
As for length, prediction markets favor 105 minutes or longer, with those shares at implied odds of 64%. Trump is expected to wear a tie color other than red (25%) or blue (8%), as “other” shares are at 68%.
Democratic Boycott
There will be many open seats on stage right of the podium, as dozens of Democratic congresspeople are planning to skip the SOTU.
More than 20 House Democrats and nine US Senate Democrats have confirmed that they will boycott the address. Among those sitting out is US Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada, who is championing legislation to restore the gambling tax deduction for itemized filers to 100%.
Recent Comments