With the Rangers sitting in last place in the Eastern Conference and making the correct decision to wave the white flag on this season, fans have started to head over to Tankathon’s draft simulator to test their luck in the draft lottery. The Rangers will have a minimum of three picks in the first two rounds of this draft, and I expect that number to rise as more pieces are moved ahead of the trade deadline. Thus, a 2026 NHL Draft review is in order, as the Rangers may be picking in multiple spots in the first round and beyond.
The Letter 2.0 has coincided nicely with a lot of midseason 2026 NHL Draft ranking releases, so this seemed as good a time as any to take our first informed looks at trends in the class. Before we dive in, I am on record stating that I disagree that this is a strong draft class. Public draft analysts like Chris Peters, Scott Wheeler, and the infamous Cory Pronman are all in agreement on that point.
I outlined the reasons for this last summer (weak center class, weak USA crop), and they hold true today, although there have been a couple of positive trends that now lead me to believe this is an average draft class.
That all being said, there are legitimate reasons to be excited about having a high pick in this draft, and there are several players I have my eye on. Let’s start with the top of the draft! I should note that as of writing this, the Rangers sit 5th in the draft lottery.
Battle for 1OA
Coming into the season, not many people envisioned there being a legitimate competition for 1st in this class. It would be misleading to say Gavin McKenna has been bad at Penn State. However, given he was the most anticipated Freshman in quite some time – and I might go so far as to argue ever – and was joining a very good team, he has disappointed relative to expectations. He is still an outstanding prospect.
However, Keaton Verhoeff (RHD, North Dakota) and Ivar Stenberg (W, Frolunda) have both had outstanding seasons and have firmly entered the discussion to be the first overall pick. Verhoeff plays the premium position and has coupled it with really impressive production for a true underage freshman. Stenberg is producing the most impressive statistical SHL draft season ever, and was one of Sweden’s best players at the WJC en route to a gold medal.
It’s too close to call at this point, but make no mistake, McKenna’s hold on the 1st overall pick is long gone. To me, Stenberg looks like the strongest bet to be a true gamebreaker at this point in the process.
Pick 5: The Defensemen
This range is the most likely scenario for the Rangers. They were slotted to pick at 6 in 2019 before moving up to pick 2, so a move up is definitely still a possibility. Don’t fret though, because just like in 2019, several players every year drafted outside the top 3 end up having far more successful careers. There are several interesting players I see as fits in this range.
Latvian star Alberts Smits (LHD, Jukurit) jumps off the page immediately as a player who would help remedy both the short-term and long-term need to build the defense group beyond Adam Fox’s pairing. Smits is big, can skate and defend very well, and has showcased some offense in Liiga and at the World Juniors in December. He will play for Latvia at the Olympics, and a strong performance could solidify him as a unanimous top 5 prospect.
Carson Carels (LHD, Prince George) does not bring the size of Smits, but he has a similar level of maturity in his game, and made Team Canada as a true underager. Corey Pronman compared him to former Ranger Ryan McDonagh in his most recent draft rankings. I think we can all agree that McDonagh’s profile was missed coming out of the 2017-2020 rebuild.
For both Smits and Carels, I don’t believe their success as high picks relies on their being given PP1 time. I believe that is the case for Chase Reid (RHD, Soo), who is a fantastic player and a riser in this class, but for that reason, I don’t see Reid as a fit for the Rangers with this pick.
Pick 5: The Centers
My primary gripe about this class a year ago was the lack of a bona fide 1C prospect. A year later, that remains true. However, this presents an exciting possibility that none of the top centers will be off the board when the Rangers make their pick. If Drury capitalizes on Vincent Trocheck’s trade value, it will presumably leave an immediate hole, making center a priority. While these three players are not top-tier center prospects, all three look like premium two-way talents that can eat tough minutes and help a team win, directly replacing the role of Trocheck.
Tynan Lawrence (LHC, Boston University) briefly looked like a contender for 1st overall following an excellent debut campaign in the USHL, which is a really tough league to score in. An injury that delayed the start of his campaign, coupled with a mid-season move to BU (and the slow start that has followed) derailed that push. But Lawrence is still a 6’+ Center with high skill and excellent speed. I expect him to figure out college hockey in short order.
Caleb Malhotra (LHC, Hamilton) lacks the toolsiness of Lawrence, but he is a major riser in this class and brings a bit more size to the table. Like Lawrence, he is widely regarded for his excellent compete level and is viewed as a shutdown center prospect.
Viggo Björck (RHC, Djurgardens) is short, but that is legitimately the only knock against his game. Of the three top Centers, he has demonstrated the highest potential upside in my opinion. He was Sweden’s best player at the World Juniors as an actual 17-year-old, and that was reflected in the huge minutes he received in the medal round despite this being Sweden’s strongest team in a long time. He is strong, fast, competitive, highly skilled, and plays the most mature game in the class.
If it’s not already clear, he is one of my favorite prospects in this class. Don’t let his tags of “maturity” and “competitiveness” lead you to think he is Lias Andersson 2.0. He is a way more talented player with none of the same drawbacks.
Late-First Names to Track
The Rangers currently have the Hurricanes’ first-round pick, and they may have another pick in this range once players like Panarin and possibly Trocheck are moved. Below is a list of players I am tracking closely, accompanied by a short explanation.
- J.P. Hurlbert, RHC/LW, Kamloops Blazers: A riser on most boards after a hot start, but it seems like there is still some skepticism due to his size and positional uncertainty. Likely a winger, very highly skilled. Probably gone, but if the pick is in the early 20s you never know.
- Jack Hextall, RHC, Youngstown Phantoms: Hextall led Team USA to an unlikely Gold medal at the Ivan Hlinka Tournament, which the US has rarely medaled in. He’s a 6′ Center who plays an incredibly complete game and has produced well in the USHL (almost a PPG). I assume he will join this weak NTDP crop for the U18 Worlds, which should help solidify his draft stock. Viewed as a late-first/early-second rounder currently.
- Wyatt Cullen, LW, USNTDP: Matt Cullen’s son headlines this underwhelming NTDP crop, and his stock has risen considerably despite an injury due to a massive growth spurt that has seen him shoot up to 6′. Widely viewed as more talented and crafty than his production has shown, he is a player to watch in the second half of the season.
- Nikita Klepov, LW, Saginaw Spirit: The fourth American listed on this watch-list, Klepov is more likely to get drafted around pick 20 than 30 if the rankings hold true, but sub-6′ wingers have a tendency to drop a few picks. Drury’s 2024-25 retool severely decreased the Rangers’ skill level, and Klepov would help add that dynamic to our prospect pool. If Carels or Smits is the first pick, I want to see a pure talent swing at forward with the second one, and Klepov fits the mold.
- Elton Hermansson, RW, Modo: The ethos here is similar to Klepov, although as a 6’1″ winger with production in a men’s league, he is unlikely to fall beyond pick 20. Still, while lacking a game-breaking skill, Hermansson has legit top 6 tools and upside, which is hard to find after the lottery. Bonus points for the cool name.
- Xavier Villeneuve, LHD, Blainville-Boisbriand: Assuming Drury is allowed to keep his job despite clearly being unfit to lead us forward, Villeneuve is not likely to be a player Drury targets as a slightly sub-6′ D. His powerplay ability is also a big part of the upside in his projection, so as long as Fox is around, he may not be a fit. But he is an incredibly dynamic player who can both move the puck and skate well, which the Rangers really lack on their roster and do not have in their prospect pool. As I mentioned, I doubt he is a good fit for Drury as things stand, but he is an interesting prospect to track.
- Adam Valentini, LHC, Michigan Wolverines: Accelerated his graduation date to play his freshman year at Michigan as a true underage freshman (turns 18 in April). 19 points in 24 games playing for the deepest team in college hockey is nothing to scoff at for a 17-year-old. He is skilled, competitive, and plays with pace, but is undersized. He might be more of a target for our second-round pick, but I like him.
- Ryan Lin, RHD, Vancouver Giants: If the Rangers are going to draft a sub-6-foot defenseman, Ryan Lin seems more realistic than Villeneuve, as he does not have questions about his competitiveness and his projection relies less on receiving PP1 time. He is consistently referred to as one of the smartest players in the draft, and public scouts will likely rank him in the teens or even the top 10 (Wheeler has him at 7). But the simple fact is that sub-6-foot defenseman do not get drafted in that range.
Despite my bearish view of this draft class, there are plenty of interesting prospects to consider, and the supposed “retool” has renewed my interest in the draft process. In a few weeks, we will have a clearer view of what the Rangers draft capital looks like for 2026. I plan to provide more content as the draft process progresses.
Recent Comments