CNN data guru says there is a 60% chance the election ends with an ‘Electoral College blowout’

CNN data expert Harry Enten said that despite being a close race on the surface, there is a high chance that the election will actually end with the winner receiving over 300 Electoral College votes.

CNN news host John Berman noted that the election seems “historically close,” but asked, “What if it’s not?”

He then turned to CNN senior political data reporter Enten to break down the numbers and observed, “As close as it is, and we do believe it‘s super close right now, that also means that if things change, even just a little bit, it‘s not really close.”

“It isn’t,” Enten agreed. “So we have been talking about the idea that there‘s going to be a historically close election. I think I might have said it on this particular program, but in fact- will the winner get at least 300 electoral votes? The answer is, majority [chance] yes.” 

He then broke down how there may be a “relative blowout” in store for the 2024 election.

“There is a…60% chance that the winner of this election gets at least 300 electoral votes versus just a 40% chance that the winner ends up getting less than 300 electoral votes,” he said. “So for all the talk that we had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College.”

“Oh my God, you’re making my hair hurt,” Berman replied. “How can it be that it’s so close, but yet still more likely than not that it’s a fairly big victory in the Electoral College.”

“If you look across the 7 key swing states, the 7 closest states in all of them, the margin right now is under 2 points – under 2 points – but keep in mind, polling ain‘t perfect, my dear friends,” Enten warned. “On average since 1972, in the battleground states, in the key swing states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points.”

Enten then produced electoral maps showing how either former President Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could end up winning over 300 Electoral College votes.

“So, based upon what we see with the average polling error and how close the states are at this point, if all of the states move in one direction, one of these candidates could score a relative blowout in the Electoral College with 300+ electoral votes,” he explained.

Enten highlighted how battleground states tend to end up breaking in one direction.

“History tells us that it is more likely than not that all of the swing state polling errors would move in one direction,” the polling expert said. “So in 2012, 92% of the states moved in Obama‘s direction.” 

“In 2016, 83% of the swing states move together because the polls underdid Donald Trump, of course we all remember that. And how about in 2020? 100% of the swing state poll averages underestimated Donald Trump, and so he did better than a lot of folks thought,” he said.

“So this time around, don‘t be surprised at the swing-state polls when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states, and that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout with of one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes,” he concluded.